Temperatures at Higher Latitudes of Northern Hemisphere to Rise More than Predicted

The gap between temperature change and GCM averages estimated in this study
Copyright National Institute for Environmental Studies

The National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), an independent administrative entity of Japan, reported on September 20, 2011, a study indicating the possibility of a higher rise in temperature than currently predicted for the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere due to significant decreases in sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. The report was published in the "Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmosphere," a US science journal, on September 17, 2011.

Future climate changes have been predicted by multiple coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) that computationally simulate the global circulation of the atmosphere and ocean. However, due to differences in input parameters and model capabilities, uncertainties remain about details such as the magnitude of temperature changes and spatial distribution characteristics. To reduce such uncertainties, the institute has developed statistical tools utilizing multivariate analysis to predict future temperature changes using observational data from the late 20th century.

The estimated magnitude of the global temperature rise has appeared to be higher than the simple averages of outputs from the 21 GCMs currently in use. The temperature rises in higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are particularly noteworthy at 1.5 to 2.0 degrees Celsius higher than the average values. These data are more reliable than the simple averages. As a result of significant decreases in sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, the actual temperatures in these regions are therefore likely to rise higher than indicated by simple averages.

Worldwide Temperature Rises in Near Future Forecasted (Related JFS article)
http://www.japanfs.org/en/pages/026833.html

Posted: 2011/12/28 06:00:15 AM