Ministry Analysis of Modal Shift Trends Shows Slightly Improved Rate for Fiscal 2004

Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Ministry, in its efforts to promote modal shifting, evaluates the modal shift rate as the ratio of cargo (excluding basic industrial materials) transported 500 kilometers (km) or more by railway or ship (including ferries). On March 26, 2007, the ministry announced that the modal shift rate in fiscal 2004 was 40.4 percent, an increase of 9.5 percentage points over the previous year, finalizing a provisional figure they released on December 22, 2006. (For details of the preliminary data, please refer to the JFS release noted below.)

The ministry also released a modal shift trend analysis conducted by its modal shift promotion committee. According to the report, cargo by rail and sea gradually increased to twice the 1975 (base year) figures by 2004, while the volume of truck transport increased much more (four to five times) with inconsistent changes. As a result, the modal shift rate showed an unstable tendency.

The improved modal shift rate in fiscal 2004 was attributed to a decrease in truck transport for distances of over 500 km. At the same time, however, truck cargo transported 100 km or less (figures not included in the modal shift evaluation) increased substantially. As cargo volumes in these two distance categories have shown opposite trends in recent years, it was assumed that the changes in the 100km or less category might be affecting other categories. The committee plans to analyze these trends further, taking into account additional factors such as the total number and supply/demand situation of trucks.


- Modal Shift Rate Recovers Sharply in FY 2004 (Related JFS article)
http://www.japanfs.org/db/1683-e

Posted: 2007/07/29 11:07:06 AM
Japanese version