How Will Global Warming Affect Fruit Production?

The National Institute of Fruit Tree Science (NIFTS), which operates under the auspices of the National Agriculture and Bio-oriented Research Organization of Japan, has released the results of its research on the effects of global warming on fruit production, as well as the results of a questionnaire survey it conducted in 2003. According to these results, the effects of global warming are already beginning to appear, and areas with suitable temperatures for the cultivation of each type of fruit will move north by the 2060s.

NIFTS made predictions regarding suitable areas for the cultivation of several types of fruit trees 30 and 60 years ahead, using climate change data in a mesh format based on global climate models (ECHAM4/OPYC3, etc.) developed by the National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences. The results show that area suitable for growing apples, which are now cultivated in all prefectures of the Tohoku region and in Nagano Prefecture, will shift northwards to Hokkaido in the 2030s. Area suitable for producing Satsuma oranges will shift northwards from its current locations along the coasts of the Kanto, Tokai and Kinki regions, and in the Setouchi, Shikoku, Kyushu regions, to coastal areas of the Hokuriku and the southern part of the Tohoku regions in the 2030s, and move even further north during the 2060s.

NIFTS has also reported that fruit tree-related research institutions in all 47 prefectures have noticed the impacts of global warming. In a questionnaire survey, such institutions answered that they have observed the effects of global warming, or that they have experienced some phenomenon probably related to global warming.

Compared to annual plants such as rice and vegetables, perennial fruit trees are much more sensitive to climate. They cannot adjust quickly and so are greatly affected by climate change. NIFTS points to the urgent necessity for developing technologies and plant varieties aimed at solving anticipated problems in the future.




Posted: 2004/08/21 03:13:45 PM
Japanese version