Energy / Climate Change

January 2, 2013


Crop to Decline in World's Major Grain Production Countries due to Global Warming

Keywords: Climate Change University / Research institute 

The National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences (NIAES) of Japan released on September 18, 2012, its study results showing that the productivity of corn and soybean in world's major grain production countries such as the U.S., China and Brazil will decline due to global warming.

The yield change is projected up to the year 2070 under four climate change scenarios simulated on different greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration pathways. The yield of maize is projected to decline by approximately 20 percent in all three regions under the most GHG concentrated scenario. The yield of soybean is projected to decrease substantially by approx. 30 percent in the U.S. and by approx. 50 percent in Brazil under the medium and most concentrated scenarios.

Meanwhile, the probability of crop failure of maize to occur concurrently in all the regions is 1.5 times higher than now under the most GHG concentrated scenario while that of soybean is approximately twice as high as now under higher GHG concentrated scenarios.